People’s daily talk about monkey prices will jump high speculation real thinking 北京科技大学国际学院

People’s daily on the year of the monkey house will jump up high: real estate speculation to think China prices will jump high in the year of the monkey "(MarketWatch) spike independent demand can be difficult to reproduce this reporter Wang Junling shot the monkey about to ring the bell, the parties concerned to the property market. Not long ago, released China Index Academy 100 city price index shows that in January the new national 100 city residential average price of 11026 yuan per square meter, up 0.42%, or 0.32 percentage points last month narrowed; but rose 4.37% year on year, or 0.22 percentage points last month to expand. Analysts pointed out that, in the favorable policy of "warm air frequency blow", the residents of the consumer demand is orderly release, but the high property market inventory, housing prices differentiation pattern is difficult to change in the short term. Since demand is released according to the Convention, before the Spring Festival is usually the policy of "window period", but this month the purchase Shoufu policy adjustment but let many people of monkey property "to stock market is full of expectations. According to the central bank and the CBRC’s new policy, in the implementation of the restriction measures in the city, residents families for the purchase of ordinary housing commercial housing loans to individuals, in principle, the minimum down payment ratio of 25%, down 5 percentage points over the floating; to have 1 sets of housing and home loans outstanding residents the family, the purchase of ordinary housing to improve the living conditions of re apply for commercial housing loans to individuals, to adjust the minimum down payment ratio is not less than 30%. Reporters simply forget it, if not limited to buy a city a total 1629 2 million yuan house, then the down payment will be reduced from 500 thousand yuan to 400 thousand yuan; and the first suite of loans did not settle the people, if you want to buy this house, down payment can be reduced from 800 thousand yuan to 600 thousand yuan. Minsheng Bank chief researcher Chinese Wen Bin said last year, "3.30 new" and the "9.30 new" in resolving the property to the inventory plays a certain role, but at the same time, the property market differentiation, trading volume first-tier cities began active, prices are rising faster, and the 234 line of the city’s housing prices are still low. He believes that in the Spring Festival when many people go home to visit relatives, to reduce the threshold of mortgage, is conducive to promoting the release of home-based demand. The pattern of differentiation is temporarily difficult to break, although the demand for self preservation is constantly released, but the local property market is still "ice and snow"". Statistics show that in the past year, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Nanjing and other hot city have larger gains, of which Shenzhen is a 44.98% annual increase in contrast, disdain for the national; Fuzhou, Sanya, Hohhot and other places prices fell significantly compared to the same period last year. Beijing Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Economic Research Director Yang Song said in an interview with this reporter, the property market differentiation of a large part of the reason is that many of the three or four line of the city real estate development too fast, causing the prices in the "concept" "blueprint" under the support of suit up, the internal supply but in fact these places can provide employment opportunities the development of space and public services did not match the prices now, prices fall is a rational regression. "The same house, why in three or four?"

人民日报谈猴年房价会否蹿高:投机炒房要三思   中国房价猴年会否“蹿高”(市场观察)   暴涨暴跌难再现 自主需求可出手   本报记者 王俊岭   猴年钟声即将敲响,各方关注楼市走向。不久前,中国指数研究院发布的百城价格指数显示,1月份全国100个城市新建住宅平均价格为11026元 平方米,环比上涨0.42%,涨幅较上月收窄0.32个百分点;而同比则上涨4.37%,涨幅较上月扩大0.22个百分点。分析人士指出,在各项利好政策的“暖风频吹”之下,居民自住型消费需求正在有序释放,但楼市库存高企、房价分化的格局却难以在短期内改变。   自住需求正在释放   按惯例,春节前通常是政策的“空窗期”,但本月初购房首付政策的调整却让不少人对猴年楼市的“去库存行情”充满期待。   根据央行和银监会的最新政策,在不实施“限购”措施的城市,居民家庭首次购买普通住房的商业性个人住房贷款,原则上最低首付款比例为25%,各地可向下浮动5个百分点;对拥有1套住房且相应购房贷款未结清的居民家庭,为改善居住条件再次申请商业性个人住房贷款购买普通住房,最低首付款比例调整为不低于30%。   记者简单算了一下,如果在不限购城市一套总房款200万元的房子,那么首付款将从50万元降低至40万元;而首套房贷未结清的人如果想买这套房子,首付则可从80万元降至60万元。   中国民生银行首席研究员温彬表示,去年“3.30新政”以及“9.30新政”在化解楼市去库存上起到了一定的作用,但同时楼市有所分化,一线城市的交易量开始活跃,房价也上涨较快,而二三四线城市的房价却依然低迷。他认为,在很多人春节回乡探亲的时候降低房贷门槛,有利于促进自住型需求的释放。   分化格局暂难打破   尽管自住型需求不断释放,但各地楼市却依旧“冰火两重天”。统计显示,过去的一年中,北京、上海、深圳、南京等热点城市均有较大涨幅,其中深圳更是以44.98%的年度涨幅傲视全国;相比之下,福州、三亚、呼和浩特等地的房价相比去年同期则明显收跌。   北京市社科院经济研究所所长杨松在接受本报记者采访时表示,楼市分化很大一部分原因在于不少三四线城市房地产开发过快,造成其房价在“概念”“蓝图”的支撑下跟风上涨,但事实上这些地方所能提供的就业机会、发展空间、公共服务等内在供给却并没有与房价相匹配,如今房价下跌是一种理性回归。   “同样是房子,为何在三四线城市的售价就和一二线城市有天壤之别呢?这背后反映的是不同地区房屋可替代性较差。不久前,芬兰坦佩雷大学专门就欧洲二线城市的发展发布了一份报告,其中反映出很多西方国家重视二三线城市发展的理念,这很值得我们借鉴。如果在中国做强一批二三线城市,其对一线城市的替代性就会提高,一线城市‘高房价’与三四线城市‘高库存’并存的问题就会相应缓解,房地产市场就会更加健康。”杨松分析。   投机炒作三思后行   各地房价冷暖不一,市场各方对于猴年楼市的表现也是预测迥异。上海易居房地产研究院副院长杨红旭表示,2016年政策面保持宽松已成定局,二三线城市的市场很可能出现弱复苏,一线和部分强二线城市则仍将保持较强态势。相比之下,同策咨询研究部总监张宏伟则认为,大多数大中城市仍然面临较大的去库存压力,楼市基本面并没有实质性改变,未来楼市仍然会面临阶段性调整。   “2016年楼市整体会以稳为主、略有下降,不会暴涨暴跌。由于中国目前仍然处于降息通道之中,贷款成本将会徘徊在低位,因此对于自住型刚需来说,可以考虑在今年下半年适时出手,但对于投机炒房者而言就要三思而后行了。”杨松表示。   杨松进一步分析指出,尽管房屋具有商品属性,但由于对百姓的生活质量影响很大,因此其不同于一般商品。   近年来,一方面政府加大了对“保障房”“廉租房”的建设和供应力度,刚需问题有所缓解;另一方面,社会也意识到了房地产畸形发展对经济的危害,而且客观上中国整体房价仍处于较高水平,因此继续炒作获利的空间已经不大。   来源:人民日报 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: