The world bank, the world should be quit monetary stimulus addiction 失恋阵线联盟简谱

The world bank, the world should be: "quit" monetary stimulus addiction U.S. stock market center: exclusive national industry sector stocks, premarket after hours, ETF, real-time quotes Sina warrants stocks news Beijing 1 FT reports, 7 years, the government introduced the extraordinary stimulus plan for the world economy to provide the support. Today, the world needs to get rid of the dependence on unconventional monetary policy, and is committed to private sector led growth. The Fed’s interest rate hike sounded like a bugle call. The damage to the Chinese market highlights the increasing global uncertainty and suggests the need for new initiatives. In 2016, there are probably three main areas to promote growth. First of all, the former US Treasury Secretary Laurence Summers (Lawrence Summers) warned that due to lack of global demand, there are "dangerous long-term stagnation" in the world. He also described the trend of globalization that has been going on for decades in the late 30s. Summers worries that emerging markets will suffer from sluggish global demand, capital outflows, poor investment prospects, and exchange rate depreciation. In the absence of new demand, emerging markets will drag down developed countries, which in turn will further depress the growth of developing countries. According to this theory, as a source of growth in a more and more important in the world economy, China is facing a difficult transition from heavy industry based economy into the service industry as the focus of the economy. In the global economic situation in poor circumstances, policy makers will through devaluation, in order to attract limited demand, which will lead to other countries to take protectionist measures against. The solution is massive government spending, particularly in the infrastructure sector, through borrowing at very low interest rates. In the eyes of Kenneth Rogoff (Kenneth Rogoff), the global economy is in the late stage of the debt super cycle. He offers second perspectives. Professor Rogoff taught history shows that with the financial excesses (financial excess) caused by growth will gradually reduce the burden, but the recovery will be very slow. The system of market crisis — a global storm, including the United States and other parts of the housing market collapse, the euro zone debt crisis, and Chinese and emerging market financial turmoil has made the global economy, and sentenced to a long period of probation. If professor Rogoff’s point of view is correct, then Summers’s massive government spending will only delay the debt crisis. On the contrary, Professor Rogoff will focus on mitigating the debtor’s dilemma, including keeping interest rates low or negative, and debt restructuring, and create favorable conditions for productive investment. He also sees the benefits of infrastructure investment, but he worries about wasteful government programs. The third growth plan is to focus the policy emphasis on increasing productivity and growth potential, especially in the private sector. (Nobel) Nobel laureate Michael Spencer (Michael Spence) and former Fed governor Kevin – Wahl (Kevin Warsh) Xu supply school 7

前世行行长:世界应该“戒掉”货币刺激之瘾 美股行情中心:独家提供全美股行业板块、盘前盘后、ETF、权证实时行情   新浪美股讯 北京时间1日FT报道,7年来,由政府出台的非比寻常的刺激计划为世界经济提供了支持。如今,世界需要摆脱对非常规货币政策的依赖,致力于实现私营部门主导的增长。美联储加息犹如吹响了号角。中国市场遭受的重创突显全球不确定性加剧,也说明有必要采取新举措。2016年或许可以从三个主要方面入手来促进增长。   首先,美国前财长劳伦斯-萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)警告,由于全球需求不足,世界存在“长期性增长停滞”的危险。他还将已持续数十年的全球化趋势放在上世纪30年代末兴起的一种理论之下来阐述。萨默斯担心,新兴市场将面临全球需求低迷、资本流出、投资前景变差以及汇率贬值。在缺乏新需求的情况下,新兴市场将拖累发达国家,这反过来将进一步抑制发展中国家的增长。   根据这种理论,作为世界经济中越来越重要的增长来源,中国正面临艰难转型,即从以重工业为主的经济,转变为以服务业为重心的经济。在全球经济状况不佳的情况下,政策制定者将通过货币贬值,以吸引有限的需求,这将引发其他国家采取保护主义的对抗措施。解决办法是大规模政府支出,特别是在基础设施领域,通过以极低利率借款融资。   在肯尼思-罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)看来,全球经济正处于债务“超级周期”的较晚期阶段。他提供了第二种视角。罗格夫教授所教的历史课表明,随着金融过度行为(financial excess)所造成的负担逐渐减轻,增长将复苏,不过会相当缓慢。系统性市场危机——一股全球性风暴,包括美国和其他地区的住房市场崩盘、欧元区债务危机,以及中国和新兴市场的金融动荡——已经惩罚了全球经济,并判了很长的缓刑期。   如果罗格夫教授的观点是正确的,那么萨默斯提出的大规模政府支出只会拖延这种债务顽疾。相反,罗格夫教授会着眼于减轻债务人的困境,具体做法包括将利率保持在低位或者负值,并重组债务,同时为生产性投资创造条件。他也看到了基础设施投资的好处,不过他对浪费性政府项目感到担心。   第三个增长方案是将政策重点重新放在提高生产率和增长潜力,特别是在私营部门。诺贝尔(Nobel)经济学奖获得者迈克尔-斯宾塞(Michael Spence)和前美联储理事凯文-瓦尔许(Kevin Warsh)等供应学派担心,非常规政策会扭曲私营部门对投资、利润、税收、估值和未来政府行为的预期。他们强调,会推动私人资本投资(从而推动薪资和利润的增长)的需求是预期的未来需求。相比之下,旨在促进短期需求的政策实际上在未来可能会抑制企业信心;它们可能会依赖合并、收购和股票回购,而非长期巨额投资。   同样,其他人呼吁通过税收和监管政策鼓励私营部门投资和就业。此外,开放贸易政策、旨在提高劳动参与率的鼓励政策(包括针对女性和残疾人)、合法移民以及更有效的教育和培训可能也会提高潜在经济增速。创建鼓励科技进步的科学、教育和创业环境将创造机会。问题是,事实证明,这种结构性增长改革在政治上很难实施。在民粹主义者和本土主义者的崛起使政治领导人受到震撼的情况下,依赖政府支出或央行会更加容易。   2016年最重要的问题是,各国是否会勇敢地推行关键结构性改革。对于中国和很多其他新兴市场而言,这些改革是应对中等收入陷阱的必要之举。日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)需要射出他的“第三只箭”,包括引入竞争、加强公司治理以及鼓励更多女性就业。对于欧元区而言,劳动力市场灵活性、工作和投资激励以及更有效的社会保障体系至关重要。对于美国而言,问题是公众是否会选出将携手重燃私营部门活力的总统和国会。   如果在2016年没有出现从货币政策向增长政策的转变,那么萨默斯和罗格夫所设想的未来成真的可能性更大:增长乏力;汇率冲突;以及民粹政治和分配斗争——由于举步维艰的经济停滞不前,还可能不时爆发小规模危机。政治领导人要么现在努力塑造本国的命运,要么等着十年经济试验的秋后算账。   本文作者曾任世界银行(World Bank)行长和美国贸易代表   译者 梁艳裳(FT中文网) 责任编辑:张玉洁 SF107相关的主题文章: