The new credit data rose to stimulate a upward M1 growth rate and stock was March 贵州大学教务管理系统

The new credit data rose to stimulate A shares upward M1 growth and stock index is the original March sina finance Level2:A shares of sina finance client speed Kanpan: the most profitable investors in each reporter Liu Mingtao 2 trillion and 510 billion yuan! New credit data in January 2016 surprised everyone! Far exceeding the expected 1 trillion and 900 billion yuan, creating a single month of 7 years of new credit record, 900 billion yuan more than the strong economic stimulus in 2009. Liquidity release, steady growth policy continues to force, but also help A share market to achieve inflation, the stock index rose 3.29% yesterday, back to the top of 2800 points, the two cities a total of more than 170 stocks daily limit, for the distribution of monkey red envelopes for investors. So, the history of new credit data surge on the impact of A shares whether there is a rule to follow? What is the impact on A shares when the new credit data is in the doldrums? "Daily economic news" reporter through statistical historical data found that the new credit data and A shares have a positive correlation. The new credit boom pushed up the stock index, which added 2 trillion and 510 billion yuan of new credit in January 2016, even though it was strongly stimulated by the economy in 2009. Historical data show that whenever new credit data explosive growth, will stimulate the A shares upward. After the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the new credit reached 1 trillion and 620 billion yuan in January 2009, with an increase of 101.59% over the same period, exceeding the market expectations due to the implementation of the 4 trillion yuan investment plan at the end of 2008 to stimulate the economy. In February 2009 and March, liquidity continued to release, the new credit continued trillion yuan, reaching 1 trillion and 70 billion yuan and 1 trillion and 890 billion yuan respectively. It is in the extremely loose liquidity environment, 2009 1~3 month A shares rebounded sharply, the stock index rose to 9.33%, 4.63% and 13.94%, respectively, the trend is strong. In June 2009, the new credit data again trillion yuan, reaching 1 trillion and 530 billion yuan, a large number of liquidity released in the first half of the year, and helped stock index in June 2009 and July continued to rise by 12.4% and 15.3%. Data show that from January 2009 to July, the stock index has increased by an astonishing 87.39%. After the release of liquidity in 2009, the new credit data fell, and remained flat, few months of new credit over trillion yuan performance. The "daily economic news" reporter statistics found that from 2010 to 2014 during a single month new credit trillion yuan in January 2010 only, January 2011, March 2012, January 2013 and March, January 2014 and March appeared in spring, credit easing, also contributed to the occurrence of each year in February A shares red market. In the beginning of 2015, before March, the new credit data were trillion yuan, and reached 1 trillion and 470 billion yuan a month, this year’s bull market opened foreshadowed, in March 2015 and April stock index rose more than 30%, extremely eye-catching performance. The influence of M2M1 growth rate change on stock market

新增信贷数据大涨刺激A股上行 M1增速与股指原来是齐步走 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经客户端:最赚钱的投资者都在用   ◎每经记者 刘明涛   2.51万亿元!2016年1月新增信贷数据令所有人吃惊!远远超过预期的1.9万亿元,创出了7年来单月新增信贷金额记录,比2009年强经济刺激时还多出9000亿元。流动性释放、稳增长政策继续发力也助A股市场实现大涨,沪指昨日涨幅达到3.29%,重回2800点上方,两市共有170多只个股涨停,为投资者派发猴年红包。那么,新增信贷数据历史上暴增对A股影响是否有规律可循?在新增信贷数据低迷时,对A股影响又是怎样?《每日经济新闻》记者通过统计历史数据发现,新增信贷数据与A股有正相关关系。   新增信贷暴涨推升股指    2016年1月新增信贷2.51万亿元,这一数据即使在2009年强刺激经济的时候,也堪称巨额。历史数据显示,每当新增信贷数据爆发式增长,都会刺激A股上行。   在经历了2008年次贷危机后,由于2008年末实施4万亿元投资计划以刺激经济,2009年1月新增信贷达到1.62万亿元,同比增长101.59%,超出市场预期。2009年2月和3月,流动性继续释放,新增信贷连续过万亿元,分别达到1.07万亿元和1.89万亿元。   正是在流动性极度宽松的环境下,2009年1~3月A股开始大幅反弹,沪指月涨幅分别达到9.33%、4.63%以及13.94%,走势强劲。而在2009年6月,新增信贷数据又一次过万亿元,达到1.53万亿元,整个上半年的流动性大量释放,又助沪指在2009年6月和7月继续大涨12.4%和15.3%。数据显示,从2009年1月到7月,沪指累计涨幅达到惊人的87.39%。   经过2009年的流动性大释放后,新增信贷数据出现回落,并保持平淡,鲜有单月新增信贷过万亿元的表现。《每日经济新闻》记者统计数据发现,从2010年到2014年期间,单月新增信贷过万亿元只在2010年1月、2011年1月、2012年3月、2013年1月和3月以及2014年1月和3月出现过,春季信贷投放宽松,也促成了每年2月A股红包行情的发生。而在2015年初,前三月新增信贷数据均过万亿元,且一月达到1.47万亿元额度,为这年牛市开启埋下了伏笔,2015年3月和4月沪指累计涨幅超过30%,表现极其抢眼。   M2M1增速变化影响股市    其实,除了新增信贷数据外,M2和M1增速的变化,特别是M1与M2增速剪刀差的变化,也与A股运行有着紧密的关系。   记者注意到,2006年1月,M1与M2的剪刀差出现低点-8.58%;2009年1月,M1与M2的剪刀差出现另一低点12.11%。这两次低点均对应了A股的底部区域。而2007年9月前后,M1与M2的剪刀差见顶,正好也是股市的顶部区域;而2010年1月,M1与M2的剪刀差再次见顶,但A股于2009年8月就见顶了。   另一方面,M1增速的大周期也与A股市场大周期基本保持一致。有市场人士指出,从历史周期来看,M1数据指标既能反映经济基本面,又能反映流动性,与股市运行高度相关。事实也是如此,《每日经济新闻》记者从历史情况看,M1增速见底往往促使股市由熊转牛,而M1增速见顶,则可能是行情出现向下拐点的信号。   数据显示,从1995年末至2008年末,M1有4次同比增幅超过20%,出现阶段性高点。这4次依序是1997年1月的22.2%、2000年6月的23.7%、2003年6月的20.24%、2007年8月的22.8%。其中,第一次、第四次,A股向下的拐点分别出现在M1增速创出高点的4个月、2个月后。   从今年1月M1和M2增速来看,M2增速为14%,M1增速为18.6%,M1与M2剪刀差为4.6%,较2015年12月剪刀差有所增大,从M1增速和剪刀差继续增大来对应看,A股后市依旧相对乐观。但也需要保持谨慎,毕竟M1增速离突破20%的高点已经不远。 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: