1130 gold markets are witnessing long-term bottom up-嘿嘿taxi

Hedge boost gold over 1130 global foreign exchange market is seen at the bottom of the long-term February 2nd — the international spot gold on Monday (February 1st) rise sharply again, in a series of global economic data weak, hedging demand pushed gold prices hit a 1 month high, was very close to $1130 an ounce level. On Tuesday (February 2nd), early morning trading in sub City, spot gold broke through the $1130 integer mark. China January official manufacturing PMI fell to nearly three and a half years low, non manufacturing PMI highs since last month, Chinese economic opening in the poor. While the government pushes the supply side reform to speed up production capacity, the manufacturing downturn has become the norm. French bank (Societe Generale) metals research director Robin Bhar said: "China disappointing economic data, manufacturing and non manufacturing industries are underperforming, showing the global market turmoil and uncertainty about global growth, which makes the price of gold broke through the 1115 resistance level to $1120 an ounce." U.S. economic data released in the day also showed poor performance. U.S. core PCE price index in December increased by 1.4%, unchanged from expectations, the U.S. ISM manufacturing index in January was 48.2, less than expected 48.5. Last week, the U.S. real GDP in the four quarter of the initial value of 0.7%, also less than expected 0.8%, showing that the U.S. economic activity slowed down. Fed vice president Fisher said on Monday that if the situation continues to tighten, it may portend a global slowdown, which will affect economic growth and inflation in the United states. And last month, Fisher was very hawkish. Royce Mendes, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said: "Fisher’s speech showed an ambiguous attitude towards raising interest rates, and he was not sure whether the interest rate increase in March would be reasonable." Last year, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates is the biggest factor to suppress gold by, and this year, the global market turmoil, the Fed rate hike expectations affected, especially last week the Fed FOMC meeting not surprisingly given the dovish statement in March this year, the market will no doubt start raising interest rates, and this is a big good news for the gold market. Georgette Amro, an analyst at ABN Boele, said: "in the long run, we think the dollar will go up, and we expect to have three interest rates this year, but there are uncertainties, so the benefits of Holland." On Monday, crude oil prices weaken, U.S. crude oil futures plummeted more than 5%, the lowest reach $31.83 a barrel. Global stock markets are similarly down, continuing to provide hedge demand to support gold. CFTC data show that in the end of January 26th, when the week, Comex gold net multi head appreciation of 16803 hands, compared with the previous week 403 hands increased sharply, the highest level in nearly three months. As of February 1st, the world’s largest gold traded fund SPDR Gol theory

避险助推黄金上破1130 市场正见证长期底部   环球外汇2月2日讯–国际现货黄金周一(2月1日)再度大幅走高,在全球一系列经济数据疲软的情况下,避险需求推动金价触及1个月新高,一度非常接近1130美元 盎司的水平。周二(2月2日)亚市早盘,现货黄金一度突破1130美元整数关口。   中国1月官方制造业PMI降至近三年半低点,非制造业PMI亦自上月高点回落,中国经济开年不佳。而在政府力推供给侧改革加速去产能之际,制造业景气低迷恐成为常态。   法兴银行(Societe Generale)金属研究主管Robin Bhar表示:“中国的经济数据让人失望,制造业和非制造业都表现不佳,显现出了全球市场的混乱以及对全球增长的不确定性,这使得金价突破了1115至1120美元 盎司的阻力水平。”   日内公布的美国经济数据也表现不佳。美国12月核心PCE物价指数同比增1.4%,与预期持平,美国1月ISM制造业指数48.2,不及预期的48.5。上周公布的美国四季度实际GDP环比初值0.7%,也不及预期0.8%,显示美国经济活动有所放缓。   美联储副主席费舍尔周一表示,如果事态的发展导致金融状况持续收紧,可能预示着全球经济放缓,进而影响美国经济增长和通胀。而就在上个月,费舍尔态度还非常鹰派。   加拿大帝国商业银行资本市场(CIBC Capital Markets)的高级经济学家Royce Mendes表示:“费希尔的发言显现出对升息的暧昧态度,他表示不确定3月加息是否合理。”   去年,美联储加息预期是黄金受到的最大打压因素,而今年以来,所在全球市场的震荡,美联储加息预期受到影响,尤其上周美联储FOMC会议不出意料的给出鸽派声明,使得市场对今年3月就能否开始加息有所怀疑,而这对黄金市场是一大利好。   荷兰银行(ABN Amro)分析师Georgette Boele表示:“长期而言,我们认为美元会走高,并且预计今年有三次加息,但这都有不确定性,因此黄金获益。”   原油价格在周一走弱,美国原油期货急跌逾5%,最低触及31.83美元 桶。全球股市也同样下行,继续提供避险需求支撑黄金。   CFTC数据显示,在1月26日结束当周,Comex期金的净多头头寸增值16803手,较此前一周403手大幅增加,创近三个月以来最高水平。截至2月1日,全球最大的黄金上市交易基金SPDR Gold Trust的黄金持仓量较前一个交易日大幅增加12.2吨,为681.43吨,再次刷新三个月新高。   Kitco高级技术分析师Jim认为,持续的避险需求是今年以来黄金市场获得推动的主因。一些资金从股市中离场,因为寻求避险而转入黄金市场。黄金下一阻力在1150水平。   市场或正见证黄金长期底部   花旗研究机构(Citi Research)称,黄金和股市之间的关系在避险需求多的情况下都会最为紧密的。今年年初以来,全球股市疲软,推动避险需求,使得黄金市场获得支撑走高。   花旗表示:“在风险需求时,其相关性接近0,而在避险需求大增时,黄金和股市的相关性在-0.15左右,表明了两者之间的逆相关关系。”   花旗认为,避险需求下,黄金ETF的持有量也和其有相关性。“在避险需求多的情况下,黄金ETF持仓平均每个月的变化在30吨,而风险需求的情况下,则只有2吨。”   1月全球黄金ETF大幅流入了51吨,是一年以来最大的增持量。在强劲的1月后,2月第一个交易日黄金市场继续走高,周一(2月1日)金价触及了3个月新高。今年以来,黄金市场已经收获了差不多6%的涨幅。   Kitco高级技术分析师Jim Wyckoff认为,持续的避险需求的技术性买盘是今年以来黄金市场获得推动的主因。Wyckoff表示:“一些资金从股市中离场,因为寻求避险而转入黄金市场。”   此外,Wyckoff认为,从技术面而言,尽管空头依然占据总体优势,但金价已经持续6周在震荡上行中,动能在多头这一边。Wyckoff表示,黄金市场接下去的阻力水平在1150美元 盎司。   Altavest的负责人及联合创始人Michael Armbruster指出,“金价的强劲上涨是因为投资者从正在‘印钱’的全球各大央行转向安全避风港资产。日本的负利率政策以及市场有关人民币将进一步贬值的预期意味着,全球各国还将继续争相贬值本国货币。”   Michael Armbruster还指出,“对任何对于某种货币走软有着风险敞口的投资者来说,黄金都是一种天然的安全避风港。除了近期的强劲表现以外,我们可能还已经见证了金价的一个重要的长期底部。”   金属经纪公司Kitco Metals的高级市场分析师Jim Wyckoff称,“从技术面来看,4月份交割的黄金期货价格在过去六个月时间里都呈现出起伏的上涨趋势,而最近以来的价格运动表明,市场底部已经到来。看多人士的下一个近期价格突破目标是金价报收于每盎司1150.00美元上方,这是一个坚实的技术阻力位。”   BullionVault的研究主管Adrian Ash指出,“今年截至目前为止黄金价格的上涨走势是从非常低的基数开始的。资产管理经理对黄金市场的情绪跟新年到来以前一样糟糕。其他资产的表现将是至关重要的一件事情,因为对于黄金市场来说,来自资产管理经理的资金流入才是最重要的。股市的下跌倾向于给黄金价格带来基本的支撑。”   环球外汇行情中心显示,北京时间8:50,现货黄金报1128.90美元 盎司。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: