From the US general election to the constitutional reform in Italy, what does political risk mean to-www.yiyi.cc

From the US general election to the constitutional reform in Italy, what does political risk mean to gold? Sina fund exposure platform: letter Phi lag false propaganda, performance is lower than the same product for a long time, how to buy the fund was pit? Click on [I want to complain], Sina help you expose them! Original title: from the United States general election to the constitutional reform of Italy, what does the political risk mean to gold? The United States presidential election in the first round of debate, the market risk will increase, the price of gold gold frustrated, Thursday (September 29th) has dropped to near $1320. But political uncertainty still provides support for gold, not only in the United States, but also in Italy. And the need to be vigilant is that gold is more or less from these political crisis tasted the sweetness, but the political risk is temporary, the gold rally will not continue. The United States presidential election in the first round of debate [gold] frustrated American election after the first debate, the market believes that the Democratic candidate Hilary in the first round of the television debates in the performance is stronger than the Republican candidate Teplan, the market risk will increase, gold hit. Spot gold on Thursday (September 29th) a week early highs has dropped more than $20, at $1320.96 an ounce. ABN AMRO commodity strategist Georgette Boele said, overall, the market sentiment has no supporting role for gold. Popularity has worsened. Stronger dollar is also bad for gold price. The price of gold fluctuates in the narrow range of $1300-1350, and this trend may continue because of the lack of major news. Some market participants said that a hot topic, the election is still the market poll shows that relatively in Pulang Hilary’s support rate advantage is not very obvious, this may limit the decline in the price of gold. Although the CNN (CNN) after the debate on the people to do the survey found that 62% of respondents believe that Hilary will win, 27% of respondents support Trump. Other polls, however, disagree. [political uncertainty is still supporting gold.] Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs commodities manager, says gold has recorded an upward trend of more than 20% since 2016, partly because the uncertainty of the US election has increased the attractiveness of gold. Jeff Currie pointed out that there are many political risks in the market, and gold has a strategic goal, that is, investors often buy hard assets in the uncertain period, and gold has been used as a means to hedge political risks. As early as August 26, 2016, the Reuters had predicted that the Democratic presidential candidate would win a landslide victory. But just three weeks later, the electoral landscape has changed dramatically. (red regional representatives support Trump) there is still uncertainty in the US presidential election. Hilary has no obvious advantage over Trump. This uncertainty provides support for gold. Columbia University professor Nobel prize winner Joseph Stiglitz (Joseph Stiglitz) on Monday (September 19th) said that Jo Trump eventually won the presidency

从美国大选到意大利宪改,政治风险对黄金意味着什么? 新浪基金曝光台:信披滞后虚假宣传,业绩长期低于同类产品,买基金被坑怎么办?点击【我要投诉】,新浪帮你曝光他们! 原标题:从美国大选到意大利宪改,政治风险对黄金意味着什么?   美国大选首轮辩论后,市场风险意愿增强,黄金铩羽而归,金价周四(9月29日)已经跌至1320美元附近。不过政治的不确定性仍为黄金提供支撑,这不仅包括美国大选,还有意大利宪改。而需要警惕是是,黄金或多或少从这些政治危机中尝到了甜头,但政治风险是一时的,黄金升势也不会一直持续。   【美国大选首轮辩论黄金铩羽而归】   美国大选首轮辩论后,市场认为民主党候选人希拉里在首轮电视辩论中的表现强于共和党候选人特普朗,市场风险意愿增强,黄金遭受打压。   现货黄金自周四(9月29日)较周初的高点已经回落逾20美元,现报1320.96美元 盎司。   ABN AMRO商品策略师Georgette Boele表示,总体而言,市场人气对黄金没有支撑作用。人气有所恶化。美元走强也对金价不利。金价在1300-1350美元的狭窄区间内波动,这一走势可能会持续,因缺乏重大消息。   部分市场人士表示,美国大选仍是市场的一大热点话题,民调显示,相对于特普朗,希拉里的支持率优势并不十分明显,这可能限制金价跌幅。   尽管美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)事后对观看辩论的人所做的调查发现,62%的受访者认为希拉里会获胜,27%的受访者支持特朗普。不过其他民调却对此持有异议。   【政治的不确定性仍为黄金提供支撑】   高盛大宗商品主管Jeff Currie表示,黄金2016年以来录得逾20%的升势,部分原因在于美国大选的不确定性增加了黄金的吸引力。   Jeff Currie指出,市场中存在很多的政治风险,黄金具有战略性目标,即是投资者往往在不确定性时期买入硬资产,黄金已经作为一种对冲政治风险的手段。   早在2016年8月26日,路透社还曾预测民主党总统候选人将取得压倒性胜利。但仅仅三周之后,选举版图却已经出现了翻天覆地的变化。(红色区域代表支持特朗普)   美国大选仍存在较大的不确定性,希拉里相较特朗普并没有明显的优势,这种不确定性为黄金提供支撑。   哥伦比亚大学教授诺贝尔奖得主约瑟夫・斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Stiglitz)周一(9月19日)表示,若特朗普最终赢得总统大选,那么美国经济将会是最大的输家,鉴于特朗普主张对中国的进口商品征收新的关税,这会打击美国的的外贸业。   丰信信托公司的首席信息官罗恩・桑切斯(Ron Sanchez)也认为大选辩论会产生波动性。他表示,“我认为随着大选时间的日益逼近,市场的波动性也在不断上升”。      不过美联储仍有较大可能在12月加息,政治风险对金价的提振作用或难以持续。若特朗普当选总统可能会是另外一番景象,美联储年内加息的计划可能因此泡汤,黄金也将再度重拾升势。   【政治的不确定性因素还包括意大利宪改】   意大利将在12月4日就宪法改革举行公投,公投结果或将决定本届政府的命运。若公投结果是反对,这导致政治不稳,投资者可能会买入黄金对冲政治风险。   “略微推迟公投的时间让总理伦齐一方有更多时间提出自己的方案,这种看法或许稍稍利好,”RBC的欧洲分析师Cathal Kennedy表示,“但这只是几周时间,所以我不确定这能成为真正的游戏规则改变者。”   DBRS称,若宪改公投结果是赞成,对意大利来说将是大局的改变,因为这将使该国更容易通过国会批准立法,减少政党体系的割据局面。意大利的一个主要问题是其无法迅速通过改革法案。   目前公投结果依然不明,一些选民或利用这个机会表达不满。若公投结果是赞成,这将是“极好的消息”,因为它可能扭转人气和投资者信心;若结果是反对,这将导致政治不稳且不利于已经低迷的经济增长。   【政治风险会影响到黄金趋势吗?】   不论是6月24日举行的英国脱欧公投还是去年演绎的轰轰烈烈的希腊债务危机,黄金或多或少从这些政治危机中尝到了甜头。但政治风险是一时的,黄金升势也不会一直持续。   英国在6月24日宣布脱欧当天,现货黄金一度飙升一百美元,当日收涨59.40美元,或4.73%。在接下来的两周内,金价攀升至逾两年半新高1375.27美元 盎司。随着脱欧忧虑的缓解,黄金自7月上旬以来,开始走向了下坡路。目前已经较此前触及的高位回落逾50美元。   同时,去年演绎的轰轰烈烈的希腊债务危机,也没能让黄金的走势吃上定心丸,而金价自2015年初以来持续下滑。      2015年1月25日,反对紧缩措施和现有救助协议的激进左翼联盟党在希腊大选中获胜,该党领导人齐普拉斯当选希腊总理,成为首个公开反对紧缩措施的欧元区国家政府首脑。   此后,希腊和债权人开启了漫长的周旋,并在去年7月全民公决否决了国际债权人提出的协议草案,而在此后的一两个月内希腊救助谈判的紧张局势有所缓解。   【影响黄金走势的关键因素是什么?】   政治风险对黄金走势的影响可能昙花一现,真正影响到金价走势的是利率。但黄金和利率之间的关系比想象中更为复杂。   上图显示,作为无息资产的黄金,和美国实际长期利率之间的关系存在强劲的负相关。      不过黄金和利率并不总是负相关。1971年到1979年期间,美国利率和金价就出现了同时上升的奇怪现象,之所以出现这样的现象,在于当时的美国处于滞胀时期。滞胀是指高通胀与经济衰退并存的时期。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: