Gu Mingde a significant improvement of external environment-y580

Gu Mingde: A external environment improved sina finance Level2:A shares of sina finance client speed Kanpan: the most profitable investors are using the source: financial investment report the dollar index and RMB exchange rate fluctuation is an important external environment and the fundamentals of A shares. A shares plummeted in the new year’s January, in addition to other factors, the market worried about the RMB exchange rate is also an important factor. 1 late last month to the deadline date, a new phenomenon is suddenly appeared, the dollar index fell significantly. Is it an accident or a temporary phenomenon? Or is it a new trend? We need to track research. Existing data show that this is at least a phase of the phenomenon. The dollar index showed a weak phase, the devaluation of the renminbi will ease the pressure, the stability of the RMB exchange rate, on the stability of A stock market confidence favorable, beneficial to overcome the crash. The dollar index began to rise from 2014 June to January 2015 rose 80 points, to 90 points, to the end of November 2015 rose to 100 points, the Federal Reserve announced interest rate hike time. As experts predict the Fed has raised interest rates several times during the year, and the number of RMB has fallen during the year, ten unexpected phenomena have emerged. The dollar index from the end of December to today’s 2 months, down not up, a short time of 2 months from 100 points down to 96 points, 4% interval. For the dollar index, this decline only occurred in the 2008 financial crisis. Most experts predict that the reason for the error is that the rise in the dollar index hurts the U.S. economy and ignores selective blindness. Finally, the negative impact of the strong dollar on the real economy of the United States is demonstrated by comprehensive economic data. The market over the dollar, the excessive superstition of the U.S. economy, excessive worship suddenly collapsed. Fuse data, January U.S. non manufacturing index is less than expected, the lowest since 2014; the deeper the data is, the United States in the fourth quarter GDP growth rate dropped to 0.7%, about 2% of the annual; deeper data, U.S. trade deficit in December from the usual 400 billion dollars, rose to more than 600 dollars. No wonder Federal Reserve executives say a strong dollar has a negative impact on the U.S. economy. Obviously, the original forecast of several interest rates in the dollar during the year is likely to fail, which is obviously beneficial to the stability of the RMB exchange rate. Looking forward to the Spring Festival holiday, the dollar index from strong to weak situation can not be suddenly reversed, the probability of horizontal consolidation is larger. Therefore, the pressure of RMB exchange rate depreciation obviously eased. At home, the government measures to adjust the structure to the real estate inventory gradually implemented, the central bank in January liquidity is ample, more funds invested. Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets stabilized, the bottom area is obvious. After the reduction of the new regulations of major shareholders, many major shareholders will decrease significantly, because the amount of reduction should be announced two weeks in advance, the major shareholders as long as the announcement to be reduced, the stock price will continue to limit, this measure is favorable to stabilize the stock price. At the same time, the backdoor reorganization, the reform of state-owned stock market active, panic in the market a week before the obvious relief. The Shanghai Composite Index fell from 5100 points to 2638 points, and the gem index fell below 20 points from 4000 points

顾铭德:A股外部环境明显改善 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经客户端:最赚钱的投资者都在用   来源:金融投资报   美元指数与人民币汇率波动趋势是A股的重要外部环境和基本面要素。A股新年1月份的暴跌除了其他因素外,市场对人民币汇率的担忧也是重要因素。1月下旬到 截稿日,一个新现象突然出现,就是美元指数开始明显下跌。这是偶然短暂现象?还是一个新趋势?我们需要跟踪研究。现有数据表明,这至少是一个阶段性的现 象。美元指数呈弱势的阶段,人民币贬值压力就缓解,人民币汇率稳定,对稳定A股市场信心有利,对战胜股灾有利。   美元指数从2014年6月份80点开始上升,到2015年元月上升到90点,到2015年11月底上升到100点,也就是美联储宣布加息时间。正当专 家媒体纷纷预测美联储年内几次加息,人民币年内贬值多少时,十个意料之外的现象出现。美元指数从12月底到今天的2个多月时间内,不涨反跌,短短2个多月 时间从100点跌到96点,4%区间。对美元指数来讲,这种跌幅只有在2008年金融危机时才会出现。大部分专家媒体预测错误的原因在于,对美元指数上升 对美国经济的伤害忽略不计,选择性失明。最终,强势美元对美国实体经济的负面影响通过综合经济数据表现出来,市场对美元,对美国经济的过度迷信、过度崇拜 突然崩溃。导火线的数据是,1月份美国非制造业指数不及预期,创2014年以来最低;较为深层的数据是,第四季度美国GDP增幅降至0.7%,全年约 2%;更为深层的数据是,美国12月份贸易逆差从平时的400余亿美元,上升到600余亿美元。难怪美联储高管说强势美元对美国经济有负面影响。很显然, 原先预测的美元年内几次加息云云很有可能落空,这对人民币汇率的稳定明显有利。   展望春节长假之间,美元指数由强转弱的态势不可能突然逆转,横向整理概率较大。由此,人民币汇率外在贬值压力明显缓和。在国内,政府调结构去房地产库 存的各项措施逐步落实,央行在1月份流动性宽裕,资金投放较多。沪深股市企稳,底部区域明显。大股东减持新规公布后,许多大股东减持意愿明显下降,因为要 预先二周公布减持数量,大股东只要一公布要减持,股价立马连续跌停,这个措施对稳定股价有利。同时,借壳重组、国资改革个股行情活跃,市场恐慌情绪在节前 一周明显缓解。上证指数从5100余点跌到2638点,创业板指数 从4000余点跌破2000点。这种跌幅绝对属于大股灾,对人气的挫伤、打击非常厉害,难以在短期内恢复。但是,在一片悲观声中,也要保持理智和清醒。股 市特点在于,所有人都绝望时,股市反而见底,物极必反;股市魅力在于,即使大部分人亏损,它永远还会给大家提供新的扭亏赚钱的机会。(金融投资报 顾铭德) 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: