This round of price increases is nearing completion shiyang

This round of price rise is nearing the end of the sina finance opinion leader (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Ren Zeping Yang Weixiao, this round of price increases in 2014-2016 small cycle is started in the background of the economic downturn, the main monetary phenomenon: low interest rates, money over and encourage residents to increase leverage, which belongs to the policy of cattle, buffalo, the lever of cattle. Now these three cattle are gone: policy tightening, monetary neutrality, reduce leverage. This round of price rise is nearing the end of the Fed’s second interest rate hike expected resurgence, global monetary easing comes to an end, the liquidity inflection point looming. The domestic monetary policy to neutral steady, real estate regulation once again resorted to small, the end of the cycle, or to return to the economic downward channel, reform in political and economic cycles are waiting for the ice. The future, the future has come. Recuperate, steady line zhiyuan. International: economic double track and Fed rate hike. China’s economy faces two major challenges: the Fed’s interest rate hike and India. The most basic features of the current world economy is the economic recovery and the monetary policy cycle track, the United States to recovery and the first rate hike, while Europe and Japan and emerging economies are still in the bottom do not have the conditions of interest rate. Fed to restart the interest rate hike cycle, the global monetary easing may come to an end. The dollar is the world’s major trade settlement currency, reserve currency and anchor currency, is the global liquidity of the total valve". The interest rate is an important reason for many regional or global financial crisis, the new round of the Fed rate hike cycle has started, a strong dollar cycle and international capital to return the United States will put pressure on the fragile link again in the international economy. This round of fed interest rate hike cycle may be the weakest, the pressure is not as good as before. India has a young population, low labor costs, modi reform, opening to the outside world and increase investment in infrastructure, the development of manufacturing industry, open economic take-off process, will have a profound impact on global growth pattern, industrial transfer and commodities, China need to upgrade in the global industrial chain. Domestic: economic L, real estate regulation to increase economic downward pressure. In April 2015, we put forward the "L economy, the bull market has the top", A shares peaked 2 months later, the economic model L was verified in 2016 (authority in the "start to ask the general trend"). The end of the 2014-2015 Chinese economy experienced a rapid decline in early 2016, with the real estate investment, inventory, export dip, the shift of economic growth from the rapid decline slowly into the bottom, economic type L. The bottom of the economic cycle, but the non structural bottom: mainly rely on real estate and infrastructure investment, the lag effect of the real estate sales unpopular and PPP is expected to continue to support the 4 quarter, a new round of real estate regulation to increase downtown pressure on the economy in 2017. Since the 2014 monetary easing, money supply growth and GDP growth in a big show, super currency does not flow into the real economy, and to maintain a Ponzi financing snowball and push up the price of the stock market and the housing market, general merchandise rose. In early 2016, as the economy L and inflation expectations rise, the return of monetary policy neutral相关的主题文章: